ADDITIONS:
Catcher Jason Kendall (trade, Pittsburgh); reliever Juan Cruz (trade,
Atlanta); outfielder Charles Thomas (trade, Atlanta); starter Dan Meyer (trade,
Atlanta); reliever Kiko Calero (trade, St. Louis); starter Dan Haren (trade, St.
Louis); catcher/1B Daric Barton (trade, St. Louis); infielder Keith Ginter
(trade, Milwaukee); pitcher Keiichi Yabu (free agent, Hanshin); starter Seth Etherton (free agent); reliever Tim Harikkala (waiver wire acquisition,
Colorado); reliever Tyler Johnson (Rule 5 draft, St. Louis).
LOSSES:
Starter Tim Hudson (trade, Atlanta); starter Mark Mulder (trade, St. Louis);
starter Mark Redman (trade, Pittsburgh); reliever Arthur Rhodes (trade,
Pittsburgh); reliever Jim Mecir (free agent, Florida); reliever Chris Hammond
(free agent, San Diego); catcher Damian Miller (free agent, Milwaukee);
outfielder Jermaine Dye (free agent, Chicago WS); outfielder Nelson Cruz (trade,
Milwaukee); reliever Justin Lehr (trade, Milwaukee); utility player Mark McLemore (retired).
PROJECTED LINEUP:
1: CF Mark Kotsay
2: C Jason Kendall
3: 3B Eric Chavez
4: DH Erubiel Durazo
5: SS Bobby Crosby
6: 1B Scott Hatteberg
7: LF Eric Byrnes
8: RF Nick Swisher
9: 2B Mark Ellis/Keith Ginter
Fortified by the acquisitions of All-Star Jason Kendall and power-hitting
infielder Keith Ginter, the A’s regular batting order will have a good balance
of hitters who get on base and hitters who slug homeruns. While the line-up will
likely only feature one legitimate 35-homer threat (Eric Chavez), the A’s will
have eight regulars who could realistically hit more than 15 homeruns (everyone,
essentially, but Kendall).
The major weakness in the A’s line-up is their lack of a
middle-of-the-order right-handed power hitter to break-up lefties Chavez,
Erubiel Durazo and Scott Hatteberg. Jermaine Dye was that right-handed hitter
last season, but he departed for the Chicago White Sox. The A’s will likely
begin the season with Chavez and Durazo hitting back-to-back in the 3-4 spot,
with righties Bobby Crosby, Keith Ginter or Eric Byrnes hitting fifth in front
of Hatteberg. However, as the season progresses, the A’s may turn to one of
those right-handed hitters to man the fourth spot. Another possibility is that
the righty Kendall will be moved from the number two spot to the fourth spot.
While Kendall would be an unorthodox choice for a clean-up hitter because of his
lack of power, he could be very successful there because he is a contact hitter
who has hit for a high batting average with runners in scoring position during
his career.
Rookie outfielder Nick Swisher will also have a big impact on the way the A’s
configure their line-up. Swisher has the capability of being both a top of the
order hitter (he had an OBP over .400 in AAA last season) or a middle of the
order hitter (he hit 31 homeruns between AAA and the major leagues in 2004). If
he has a strong rookie campaign, Swisher could give the A’s a tremendous
amount of flexibility in their line-up because of his ability to hit from both
sides of the plate. The A’s could use him to break-up Kotsay and Chavez at the
top of the order or to hit fifth or sixth if he is hitting well.
Another starter the A’s will be counting on is shortstop Bobby Crosby.
Crosby was the Rookie of the Year and hit an impressive 22 homeruns, but he
struggled to make contact during the second half of 2004. However, Crosby got
on-base at a much higher rate during his minor league career then he did last
season. If he can improve his plate patience and up his on-base percentage into
the mid-.300s, the A’s should score a lot more runs then they did last season.
BENCH:
C Adam Melhuse
IF Mark Ellis/Keith Ginter
IF Marco Scutaro/Dan Johnson/Jack Cust/Hiram Bocachica/Jermaine Clark
OF Bobby Kielty
OF Charles Thomas
One of the weakest aspects of the Oakland A’s roster in 2004 was their
bench. Adam Melhuse did an excellent job as a back-up catcher, but the A’s
were limited in their options in the back-up infield and outfield positions.
This season, the A’s shouldn’t be short on talent in either area. Melhuse
returns as one of the top hitting back-up catchers in the league. With starter
Jason Kendall’s reputation as an extremely durable catcher, the switch-hitting
Melhuse may be freed up to appear as a pinch-hitter more frequently then he did
last season.
In the infield, the A’s will be fortified by the presence of the loser of
the battle for the second base starting job, either Ginter or Mark Ellis. Both
have complementary strengths and weaknesses. Ginter has plus power for a middle
infielder, but is average with the glove. Ellis is an average hitter, but is
spectacular with the glove and works the count well at the plate. Ellis will be
recovering from a right shoulder injury, so it remains to be seen if he will be
at full strength. If the A’s carry only 11 pitchers, then they will likely
carry an additional infielder on their bench, either in the form of last year’s
starting second baseman Marco Scutaro, a utility player like Hiram Bocachica or
Jermaine Clark (both of whom can play the middle infield and the outfield) or a
first base/DH type like AAA MVP Dan Johnson or former top minor league prospect
Jack Cust. Nick Swisher will also get time as a back-up first baseman when Scott
Hatteberg needs a day off.
The A’s outfield will also be deep next season. Oakland acquired Charles
Thomas from the Atlanta Braves as part of the Tim Hudson trade. Thomas will give
the A’s a dynamic presence off of the bench, as he combines above-average
speed and a flashy glove. He can play all three outfield positions. Thomas is
left-handed and should share some of the playing time with the right-handed
Byrnes in leftfield. Switch-hitting Bobby Kielty could be the wildcard on the A’s
bench. Kielty was the starter for the A’s at the beginning of 2004, but lost
his spot due to ineffectiveness. When on his game, however, Kielty has a strong
power hitting stroke, especially from the right-side of the plate. Kielty could
give the A’s a boost in the power department if he can recover his previous
form.
ROTATION:
LH Barry Zito
RH Rich Harden
RH Dan Haren
RH Keiichi Yabu/ LH Dan Meyer
RH Joe Blanton/ RH Seth Etherton
In a stunning development, the A’s dramatically re-shaped their starting
rotation in December when they dealt Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. Earlier in the
offseason, Oakland had also dealt fifth starter Mark Redman. With all of the
changes the A’s have had in their rotation, it is hard to predict accurately
how the A’s starting staff will perform in 2005. One thing is certain --
Oakland’s staff will still have a lot of talent, albeit some of the talent is
very raw.
Despite losing two-thirds of the vaunted Big Three, the A’s still boast one
of the better one-two tandems in a rotation in baseball. Barry Zito is coming
off of a down year, but he is still an elite major league starter. Zito had a
rough start to 2004, but his strikeout arsenal returned in the second half of
the season and he appears primed for a good season in 2005. Rich Harden was one
of the best pitchers in all of baseball during the second half of the season in
2004 and the sky is the limit in terms of his potential as a starter.
The latter three spots of the rotation are more unsettled. The third starter
spot will likely be filled by Dan Haren, who was acquired in the Mark Mulder
deal. Haren has spent parts of two seasons in the major leagues and while he isn’t
long on experience, he did pitch in the playoffs this season for St. Louis. He
also had a 1.77 ERA during the month of September. Haren has an impressive
arsenal of pitches at his disposal and could be on the cusp of a breakout year.
The fourth and fifth starting spots will be filled by two of the following
four pitchers: rookies Dan Meyer and Joe Blanton or "veterans" Keiichi
Yabu and Seth Etherton. Meyer and Blanton will likely be in the A’s rotation
for years to come, but Oakland may decide not to feature two rookies in the
rotation at the same time. Meyer has not yet spent a full season in AAA, so he
may begin the year in Sacramento to get more seasoning. Blanton, with a full
year of AAA under his belt, should be ready for the major leagues. If he doesn’t
make the starting rotation, he will likely pitch out of the bullpen.
Keiichi Yabu is a veteran of the Japanese League and he has extensive
experience in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. Yabu is a
strikeout/groundball pitcher who will have the double advantage of being a
veteran pitcher who the majority of major league hitters haven’t seen pitch.
Seth Etherton is a former first round draft pick of the California Angels whose
career was side-tracked by arm injuries. Etherton, when healthy, has a live arm
and he could be a sleeper surprise in the bottom part of the rotation. Both
Etherton and Yabu were signed to major league contracts, so the A’s will have
to keep them on the roster or risk losing them on waivers. There is an outside
chance that reliever Juan Cruz could be given a chance to compete for a starting
rotation spot, as well. Cruz was primarily a starter with the Chicago Cubs
before being converted to relief by the Atlanta Braves. Cruz may have the best
raw "stuff" on the A’s roster and he could be an intriguing option
in the fifth starter role. However he has struggled with stamina as a starter in
the past.
BULLPEN:
Closer Octavio Dotel
MR Chad Bradford
MR Kiko Calero
MR Juan Cruz
MR Ricardo Rincon
LR Justin Duchscherer/Seth Etherton/Keiichi Yabu/Joe Blanton/Tyler
Johnson/Tim Harikkala
Oakland’s bullpen took the brunt of the blame for their failure to make the
playoffs for the first time this century. Early in the season, the A’s bullpen
was directly responsible for a number of heart-breaking defeats. The group
improved dramatically after the acquisition of new closer Octavio Dotel in late
June, but the bullpen was still responsible for blowing two late leads during
the last two weeks of the season, costing the A’s the division title. Oakland
made improving their bullpen a priority this off-season, and they did just that.
The bullpen will be anchored by Dotel, who will be entering his second season
as a closer. Although Dotel struggled at times as a closer last season, he did
save over 30 games and struck out hitters at a remarkable rate. He struggled
with tendonitis in his elbow at the end of last season, which hampered his
effectiveness. When healthy, Dotel should be an above-average closer.
The middle and set-up relief roles should be held by two new faces and two
familiar faces. The new faces will be righties Kiko Calero and Juan Cruz, both
of whom were extremely effective in the National League last season. The other
two spots will be filled by holdovers Chad Bradford and Ricardo Rincon. Both
Bradford and Rincon struggled at times last season because they were forced to
pitch out of their normal roles at times. Rincon is one of the top lefty
specialists in baseball and he should be more effective this season if is able
to pitch exclusively in the lefty specialist role. Bradford is a mirror image of
Rincon in that he is much more effective against righties then he is lefties. He
should be able to fill more of a specialist role this season in the A’s new,
deeper bullpen.
The final bullpen spot will be the most highly contested roster spots during
spring training. Unless the A’s choose to carry 12 pitchers, as many as eight
pitchers could be competing for the one spot. Justin Duchscherer should have the
inside track on this spot, as he was a very effective long reliever for Oakland
last season and is out of options. However, Yabu and Etherton may also be
intriguing long-man options and Blanton could take the spot if he doesn’t grab
a starting slot. The wild card in this equation is lefty Tyler Johnson, the very
talented Rule V pick from the St. Louis organization. The A’s would risk
losing him if they don’t keep him on the rotation and he could be too talented
not to keep. Rookies Jairo Garcia, Chris Mabeus and Huston Street and waiver
wire pick-up Tim Harikkala will likely have to wait their turn and start the
season in Sacramento.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK:
The new starting rotation
The A’s have lived and died by their starting rotation over the past few
seasons, but they will likely have to look to their offense and bullpen to lead
the charge this season. That being said, the A’s will still need a strong
showing from their rebuilt rotation to have a chance at a playoff spot. Zito and
Harden will have to pitch like aces and Oakland will need to get quality innings
from at least two of the group of five pitchers competing for the last three
rotation spots. There is no question that the talent level in the Oakland
rotation is high, but the collective inexperience of the group makes it a
question mark heading into the season.
BREAKOUT PLAYER:
Rich Harden
Harden made a miraculous turn-around right at mid-season in 2004. A simple
mechanical adjustment (not dropping his head when throwing a pitch) led to a
dominating second half. Harden has the talent to compete for the Cy Young Award.
With one and a half seasons under his belt, Harden seems poised to make a move
into the list of elite pitchers in the American League.
PROJECTION:
It is easy to look at the players the A’s have lost this off-season and
write off their chances to compete for a division title. While it is likely the
A’s will struggle to match their 91-win total from last season, it is also
possible that the A’s could surprise everyone and win even more. The A’s
have downgraded their starting rotation, but they have upgraded their bullpen
and offense. If the A’s stay healthy and get a decent showing from their
starting pitching, Oakland could find themselves in contention at the trading
deadline. And with the strength of the A’s farm system, Oakland could make a
big push at the deadline with a trade if they are still in the race.