2014 MLB Draft: Mock v1.0

N.C. State shortstop Trea Turner (USA Today)

SCOUT National Baseball Analyst Kiley McDaniel unleashes his first official projection of the first 34 picks of the 2014 MLB Draft.

2014 MLB Draft Rankings: The Scout 291, More College Prospects & More HS Prospects

2014 Mock Drafts: 1.0 & 2.0

2014 MLB Draft Reports & Videos: 1-3 (Free), 4-6, 7-9, 10-12, 13-15, 16-18 (Free), 19-21, 22-24, 25-27 & 28-30

2015/2016 MLB Draft Rankings (May 2014): 2015 College, 2016 College & 2015-16 High School


You can check the links above for the recent draft content. I'll do an expanded version of my top 116 next week (something over 200) then launch into scouting reports and videos for subscribers. I'll sprinkle in a few more mock drafts and first-hand accounts of games I'll see down the stretch and maybe some news/analysis if something big breaks before draft day. Enough windup—it's time to give the people what they want:

Pick
1
Houston Astros
Player: Carlos Rodon
Height: 6-0
Weight: 235
Age (Draft Day): 21.49
Current Team: North Carolina State
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Jeff Luhnow
Scouting Director: Mike Elias
Draft Slot Amount: $7,922,100

ANALYSIS: The Astros decision has been narrowed down to Rodon and Aiken, but it's far from decided right now. We didn't learn who the Astros chose with their last two #1 overall picks until they announced it and, in both cases, the final decision wasn't made until the last few days before the draft, if not draft day itself. The Astros know the track record of #1 overall picks (read: top talent) is better than every other pick, but also aren't afraid to go below slot for the guy they want and won't shy from bucking industry consensus. The interesting decision here is to take the high school arm that checks every box and is the slight industry preference as the top talent or take the college arm with a high upside but lots yellow flags that are starting to add up. The industry perceives that Houston is feeling some heat about getting some results at the big league level soon and that will drive this decision with the talent basically a coin flip. GM Jeff Luhnow has seen Rodon pitch well a couple times down the stretch as his stuff has been better than it was early in the season. I would take Aiken here, in part because he'll likely be cheaper than Rodon (who is advised by Scott Boras), but this isn't a vacuum for Houston. Even those like me who are low on Rodon still think that, in a bad scenario, he's a league average starter and quickly, so it's hard to knock the decision.

Pick
2
Miami Marlins
Player: Tyler Kolek
Height: 6-5
Weight: 270
Age (Draft Day): 18.47
Current Team: Shepherd HS (TX)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Dan Jennings
Scouting Director: Stan Meek
Draft Slot Amount: $6,821,800

ANALYSIS: There's two rumors you hear a lot on the Marlins pick: 1) that the Oklahoma-bred scouting staff loves midwestern power arms and think Kolek is the best player in the draft and 2) that ownership won't let the scouting staff pass on Latin pitcher as talented as Rodon that could drive attendance in Miami's market. In this scenario, they don't have to choose between the two, so Kolek is the pick. It sounds like Miami would take Rodon over Kolek in the case that Aiken ends up going to Houston.

Pick
3
Chicago White Sox
Player: Brady Aiken
Height: 6-4
Weight: 215
Age (Draft Day): 17.8
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Rick Hahn
Scouting Director: Doug Laumann
Draft Slot Amount: $5,721,500

ANALYSIS: I wrote this week about how the White Sox may be a real wild card depending on how the first two picks play out. In this case, they have a easy decision as the top player on my board falls into their lap. If Aiken and Rodon go in the top two picks, that's when things could get interesting. There's a belief that the White Sox wouldn't take Kolek here and are now shopping for below-slot options because their preferred pick, East Carolina RHP Jeff Hoffman, tore an elbow ligament a few weeks back. Hoffman should still go in the top 11 picks, but likely doesn't go here; the rumored below-slot candidates are all college players.

Pick
4
Chicago Cubs
Player: Aaron Nola
Height: 6-1
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 21
Current Team: LSU
Position: SP
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Jed Hoyer
Scouting Director: Matt Dorey
Draft Slot Amount: $4,621,200

ANALYSIS: The Cubs were also heavy on Hoffman but after Tommy John surgery, he isn't an option here. They'd gladly take Kolek if he's here, but otherwise will have their pick of a big second tier of talent. Prep bats Nick Gordon and Alex Jackson and college arms Brandon Finnegan and Aaron Nola are the leading candidates here. With a number of power bats in the system, Jackson seems unlikely and Finnegan is yet to return to form after some arm soreness, so he'd be hard to pick right now. Between Gordon and Nola, Nola has the most momentum here, fits the Cubs pre-spring preference of an advanced college arm and should come a good bit below slot.

Pick
5
Minnesota Twins
Player: Nick Gordon
Height: 6-1
Weight: 175
Age (Draft Day): 18.61
Current Team: Olympia HS (FL)
Position: SS
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Terry Ryan
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson
Draft Slot Amount: $3,851,000

ANALYSIS: I've written for a few weeks about the Twins zeroing in on Gordon at this pick and it made tons of sense when Aiken-Rodon-Hoffman-Kolek were near locks to go in the top 4 picks and the Twins were basically on the clock a month before the draft. Then Hoffman got hurt and now the Cubs could pick the Twins pocket on Gordon, though in this scenario the Twins get their man. Nola, Jackson and Finnegan are all mentioned here as at #4 as options. Freeland is a dark horse and Hoffman likely isn't an option.

Pick
6
Seattle Mariners
Player: Jeff Hoffman
Height: 6-4
Weight: 185
Age (Draft Day): 21.41
Current Team: East Carolina
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Jack Zduriencik
Scouting Director: Tom McNamara
Draft Slot Amount: $3,575,900

ANALYSIS: The Mariners are mentioned with a bunch of different prospects, including Hoffman and Erick Fedde, who both just had Tommy John surgery. Fedde would've been an option here healthy but isn't one now, while Hoffman was a 1-1 candidate that wouldn't get to #6 when healthy and is a nice find now. The industry belief is that Hoffman goes at any of the picks from 6 to 11 but, at this pick, he should come a good bit below slot. Sean Newcomb has been mentioned as an option here along with Trea Turner, Michael Conforto, Nola and Jackson.

Pick
7
Philadelphia Phillies
Player: Brad Zimmer
Height: 6-5
Weight: 205
Age (Draft Day): 21.52
Current Team: San Francisco
Position: RF
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Ruben Amaro
Scouting Director: Marti Wolever
Draft Slot Amount: $3,300,900

ANALYSIS: The Phillies were tied heavily to Jacob Gatewood and Brad Zimmer in April, but lately the Phils have been hot after Aaron Nola. Nola is in play at nearly every pick starting at 4, but could easily get here and likely doesn't get past the Phillies. Even for the tools-heavy Phillies, Gatewood is a little rich here, but Zimmer fits and Conforto also fits the bill of advanced college product, apparently what the Phillies are looking for here.

Pick
8
Colorado Rockies
Height: 6-4
Weight: 185
Age (Draft Day): 21.06
Current Team: Evansville
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Bill Geivett & Dan O'Dowd
Scouting Director: Bill Schmidt
Draft Slot Amount: $3,190,800

ANALYSIS: The Rockies are hoping Nola gets here, but Freeland fits the bill here of a sinkerballer that could keep the ball in the yard in Denver (which is also Freeland's hometown). There are some concerns about his elbow, but he's been healthy this spring, performed all year and his similarities to White Sox lefty Chris Sale make teams more comfortable with his unique delivery and low arm slot. One scouting director went so far to say this recent success story with a similar look has impacted Freeland's draft status: "Sale has made Freeland a lot of money." Turner, Jackson and Max Pentecost are all in the mix here.

Pick
9
Toronto Blue Jays
Player: Trea Turner
Height: 6-2
Weight: 175
Age (Draft Day): 20.93
Current Team: North Carolina State
Position: SS
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Scouting Director: Brian Parker
Draft Slot Amount: $3,080,800

ANALYSIS: The Jays have been tied to a number of players. I linked them to Florida prep talents Touki Toussaint, Sean Reid-Foley and Nick Gordon months ago and two of those are still on the board here. Hoffman shouldn't get past their 2nd pick at #11 if he makes it that far. Turner, Jackson, Holmes, Newcomb and Pentecost have all been mentioned as well and Finnegan could be a fit if his velo bounces back. The thinking here is to take whoever you're worried the Mets might take at #10, which narrows it down to Turner and Jackson. The Jays are in on both but I've got them opting to take the late-surging Turner, as the Jays tend to prefer up the middle athletes.

Pick
10
New York Mets
Player: Alex Jackson
Height: 6-1
Weight: 220
Age (Draft Day): 18.44
Position: C
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Sandy Alderson
Scouting Director: Tommy Tanous
Draft Slot Amount: $2,970,800

ANALYSIS: The Mets are hunting for a bat here (unless Nola falls) with Conforto, Zimmer, Jackson and Turner all mentioned and this is the first spot where Florida prep 2B Forrest Wall is in play. In this scenario, Turner and Zimmer are off the board and I have the Mets passing on Conforto to take Jackson, who GM Sandy Alderson saw during a scorching hot streak last month. This is probably as low as Jackson could go, with a real chance he goes in the top 5.

Pick
11
Toronto Blue Jays
Player: Grant Holmes
Height: 6-1
Weight: 205
Age (Draft Day): 18.2
Current Team: Conway HS (SC)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Scouting Director: Brian Parker
Draft Slot Amount: $2,888,300

ANALYSIS: Toussaint, Reid-Foley and Holmes are the likely targets here, keeping with the Jays preference for high ceiling prep arms. I've got Holmes as the choice, but it could be any of the three, with the Jays particularly high on Toussaint.

Pick
12
Milwaukee Brewers
Height: 6-1
Weight: 220
Age (Draft Day): 21.26
Current Team: Oregon State
Position: RF
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Doug Melvin
Scouting Director: Bruce Seid
Draft Slot Amount: $2,805,700

ANALYSIS: Conforto, like Hoffman and Turner, is in play at every spot starting at #6 with Seattle. Since he's an all-bat prospect that may end up at first base, I think he'll end up the backup choice at the number of spots, but shouldn't get out of the top half of the first round. Pentecost is another guy the Brewers are on and this looks like the first spot where Georgia prep 3B Michael Chavis could come up. Finnegan and Beede are two college arms that could go here, but Finnegan's health and Beede's general inconsistency have their stock all over the map.

Pick
13
San Diego Padres
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 21.24
Current Team: Kennesaw State
Position: C
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Josh Byrnes
Scouting Director: Billy Gasparino
Draft Slot Amount: $2,723,300

ANALYSIS: The Pads will play the board here and see who slips, as we're now to the point where there isn't a clear best available. They'd like to get Turner, but after his recent hot streak, that seems unlikely; same goes for Freeland and Conforto. At this point, Finnegan is an option even if he isn't quite himself, but Pentecost could be an above average everyday catcher and those are hard to find, even if San Diego already has Austin Hedges.

Pick
14
San Francisco Giants
Height: 6-11
Weight: 185
Age (Draft Day): 21.14
Current Team: TCU
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Brian Sabean
Scouting Director: John Barr
Draft Slot Amount: $2,613,200

ANALYSIS: As mentioned above, Finnegan is now undervalued as he just picked the wrong time to have some arm soreness (assuming that's all it ends up being). The Giants love arm speed and don't mind if it comes in a small package. Finnegan is very comparable to Aaron Nola, who is going 10 spots higher in this projection, so this could be a steal. Toussaint and Reid-Foley are two more big arm-speed guys in play here along with Chavis.

Pick
15
Los Angeles Angels
Player: Sean Newcomb
Height: 6-5
Weight: 240
Age (Draft Day): 20.98
Current Team: Hartford
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Jerry DiPoto
Scouting Director: Ric Wilson
Draft Slot Amount: $2,475,600

ANALYSIS: Newcomb is in play at most of the 10 picks ahead of here, so this is another nice value for a team that just waits for who ends up available from the big second tier of talent. Sounds like the Angels are leaning college here, hoping Conforto or Zimmer falls and possibly taking Schwarber instead of Newcomb.

Pick
16
Arizona Diamondbacks
Height: 6-0
Weight: 240
Age (Draft Day): 21.25
Current Team: Indiana
Position: C
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Kevin Towers
Scouting Director: Ray Montgomery
Draft Slot Amount: $2,338,200

ANALYSIS: I feel like a broken record saying Schwarber is a nice value here, but that's what happens at the tail end of a big tier of talent that's hard to tell apart. Stanford 2B Alex Blandino is in play here along with Chavis and a free-falling Tyler Beede.

Pick
17
Kansas City Royals
Height: 6-2
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 17.96
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Dayton Moore
Scouting Director: Lonnie Goldberg
Draft Slot Amount: $2,200,600

ANALYSIS: Toussaint has top 5 stuff at times, but learned this spring that he can command it better when he dials it back a notch. Newcomb, Pentecost and Finnegan are options if they make it here while Chavis and Reid-Foley are also in play.

Pick
18
Washington Nationals
Player: Tyler Beede
Height: 6-4
Weight: 215
Age (Draft Day): 21.03
Current Team: Vanderbilt
Position: SP
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Mike Rizzo
Scouting Director: Kris Kline
Draft Slot Amount: $2,145,600

ANALYSIS: This is about where Beede fits right now and he fits the bill for the Nationals, who are always shopping for hugely talented arms, even if they come with some concerns. This is the high-water mark for Fedde, but Reid-Foley is still on the board here and is the last arm in that big second tier.

Pick
19
Cincinnati Reds
Height: 6-3
Weight: 210
Age (Draft Day): 18.84
Current Team: Sandalwood HS (FL)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Walt Jocketty
Scouting Director: Chris Buckley
Draft Slot Amount: $2,090,500

ANALYSIS: Reds scouting director Chris Buckley is based in Tampa and knows the Sunshine State well, taking Jesse Winker, Nick Travieso and Ben Lively in the past two drafts. This year, Florida has lots of top-end talent and while Gordon and Toussaint are gone in this projection, Reid-Foley, Wall and lefty Foster Griffin all fit here along with Georgia product Chavis. Reid-Foley could go in the top 10, so the Reds would be happy to get him here after he hit 97 mph in his final high school start.

Pick
20
Tampa Bay Rays
Player: Forrest Wall
Height: 6-0
Weight: 175
Age (Draft Day): 18.54
Position: SS
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Scouting Director: R.J. Harrison
Draft Slot Amount: $2,035,500

ANALYSIS: They'd like to get a crack at Pentecost or Conforto and would consider the guys going in the picks just before them here. Wall has arguably the best bat in the prep class, is an easy plus runner and has some pop, all in Tampa's backyard. Chavis, Derek Hill and Ti'Quan Forbes are other options here.

Pick
21
Cleveland Indians
Height: 6-11
Weight: 200
Age (Draft Day): 18.82
Current Team: Sprayberry HS (GA)
Position: 3B
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Chris Antonetti
Scouting Director: Brad Grant
Draft Slot Amount: $2,008,100

ANALYSIS: Cleveland picks basically at the end of that big second tier of talent, so they'll just take the player that slides here after being in the mix at all the picks ahead of them. For this, that ends up being Chavis, though I'm told they'd also like a crack at Pentecost and Beede if they make it here. Blandino and Derek Hill are also in the mix.

Pick
22
Los Angeles Dodgers
Player: Derek Hill
Height: 6-1
Weight: 175
Age (Draft Day): 18.43
Current Team: Elk Grove HS (CA)
Position: CF
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Ned Colletti
Scouting Director: Logan White
Draft Slot Amount: $1,980,500

ANALYSIS: After adding former Braves scouting director Roy Clark (who made his name on prep players in Georgia) as a special assistant to help VP of Scouting Logan White (a prep pitching connoisseur) the draft rumor mill immediately tied them to the Georgia prep arm du jour, righty Spencer Adams (who's been up to 96 mph this spring). This is a little high for Adams, but another Dodgers scout, NorCal area guy Orsino Hill (a former first rounder himself), gets to take his son in the first round. Derek is an 80 runner and 70 defender in center with advanced feel to hit, but not a lot of power in his game just yet.

Pick
23
Detroit Tigers
Height: 6-4
Weight: 240
Age (Draft Day): 21.1
Current Team: Wichita State
Position: 1B
Bats: B
Throws: L

General Manager: Dave Dombrowski
Scouting Director: Scott Pleis
Draft Slot Amount: $1,953,100

ANALYSIS: The Tigers would like a shot at Chavis or one of the tier two power arms (Toussaint, Reid-Foley, Beede, Newcomb, Finnegan) but none of them make it here in this scenario. This may still be a little high for Fedde, though he fits the Tigers' preferences. Gillaspie, Adams and Derek Fisher are among the choices here and NorCal prep righty Luis Ortiz could jump into this range if he bounces back completely from forearm soreness. Louisville closer Nick Burdi could also be an option if worst case scenarios happen in front of them, but this is likely high for Burdi even for a team in love with hard throwers.

Pick
24
Pittsburgh Pirates
Height: 6-0
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 21.58
Current Team: Stanford
Position: SS
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Neal Huntington
Scouting Director: Joe DelliCarri
Draft Slot Amount: $1,925,500

ANALYSIS: Blandino is the last guy in the second tier (according to my rankings) but a second baseman with a chance for above average hit and power tools fits just about any drafting style or preference. Foster Griffin, Ti'Quan Forbes and Monte Harrison have all been mentioned here.

Pick
25
Oakland Athletics
Height: 6-4
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 17.78
Current Team: Columbia HS (MS)
Position: SS
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Billy Beane
Scouting Director: Eric Kubota
Draft Slot Amount: $1,898,000

ANALYSIS: Oakland has been the subject of some rumors this spring, with the owner showing up to see Cal Poly lefty Matt Imhof, GM Billy Beane showing up to see Ti'Quan Forbes and multiple high level execs in to see Monte Harrison and Michael Chavis. Forbes fits best at this pick and is a big athlete with feel to hit, but an unsure positional fit.

Pick
26
Boston Red Sox
Player: Derek Fisher
Height: 6-3
Weight: 210
Age (Draft Day): 20.79
Current Team: Virginia
Position: CF
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Ben Cherington
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye
Draft Slot Amount: $1,870,500

ANALYSIS: Fisher may have gone 10 spots higher before a broken hamate bone earlier this spring, but he's ironically hit for more game power after returning from the injury. Monte Harrison, Foster Griffin, Erick Fedde and Chase Vallot could also fit here.

Pick
27
St. Louis Cardinals
Height: 6-5
Weight: 210
Age (Draft Day): 18.98
Current Team: First Academy HS (FL)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: L

General Manager: John Mozeliak
Scouting Director: Dan Kantrovitz
Draft Slot Amount: $1.843,000

ANALYSIS: Griffin is peaking at the right time, as the 6'5 lefty hit 95 mph in his last high school start. He fits the Cardinals mold of big athletes with above average stuff. Athletic center fielders Marcus Wilson and Monte Harrison have both been linked to the Cardinals as well as prep 1B Braxton Davidson.

Pick
28
Kansas City Royals
Height: 6-4
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 18.69
Current Team: Clovis HS (CA)
Position: 3B
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Dayton Moore
Scouting Director: Lonnie Goldberg
Draft Slot Amount: $1,815,500

ANALYSIS: Gatewood is the most polarizing prospect in the draft and could go anywhere from 7 to 50. Only a handful of teams would take him in the first round, but the Royals have taken chances on similarly raw bats before. Fedde, Gettys, Harrison and Adams all have been mentioned with the Royals as well.

Pick
29
Cincinnati Reds
Player: Erick Fedde
Height: 6-4
Weight: 175
Age (Draft Day): 21.28
Current Team: UNLV
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Walt Jocketty
Scouting Director: Chris Buckley
Draft Slot Amount: $1,788,000

ANALYSIS: Around here, the board really starts to open up and teams could be considering prospects well down on the industry's consensus list. There were rumors Fedde could sneak in the top 5-6 picks before his elbow popped, so he seems like a reasonable gamble here. As a comparable, Ryne Stanek went in this area last year with medical concerns and a similar profile, but less talent.

Pick
30
Texas Rangers
Height: 6-2
Weight: 205
Age (Draft Day): 18.62
Current Team: Gainesville HS (GA)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Jon Daniels
Scouting Director: Kip Fagg
Draft Slot Amount: $1,760,500

ANALYSIS: The Rangers would like a chance at Fisher (they drafted him in the 6th round out of high school) or Forbes, but have also been on Gettys all spring. He looked like a possible top 10 pick entering the spring, but he's had some real trouble with pitch identification. Wilson and Harrison also fit this mold of up the middle toolsy types.

Pick
31
Cleveland Indians
Player: Chase Vallot
Height: 6-0
Weight: 205
Age (Draft Day): 17.79
Position: C
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Chris Antonetti
Scouting Director: Brad Grant
Draft Slot Amount: $1,733,000

ANALYSIS: Vallot tailed off last summer when he put on some weight and looked sluggish, but was in much better shape this spring and has been excellent. Alex Verdugo, Luis Ortiz and Michael Kopech all are in play here.

Pick
32
Atlanta Braves
Height: 6-4
Weight: 180
Age (Draft Day): 18.14
Current Team: White County HS (GA)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Frank Wren
Scouting Director: Tony DeMacio
Draft Slot Amount: $1,705,400

ANALYSIS: It seems reductive to give the Braves a prep lefty or Georgia product, but they keep picking them and there's always plenty of both. Adams is in play at a number of the picks ahead of them and closed his season strong, so this is a nice value. They'd like a shot at Foster Griffin and some other options here include lefties Kodi Medeiros and Alex Verdugo along with prep first baseman Braxton Davidson.

Pick
33
Boston Red Sox
Height: 6-2
Weight: 175
Age (Draft Day): 17.81
Position: CF
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Ben Cherington
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye
Draft Slot Amount: $1,678,000

ANALYSIS: Wilson is a big athlete that's young for the class and is in play anywhere from 20 to 50. Medeiros, Verdugo and Luis Ortiz are other possibilities.

Pick
34
St. Louis Cardinals
Height: 6-2
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 18.82
Position: CF
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: John Mozeliak
Scouting Director: Dan Kantrovitz
Draft Slot Amount: $1,650,400

ANALYSIS: Local dual-sport star is signed to play wide receiver and center field for Nebraska, but will turn pro if taken in the top 50 picks as expected. Davidson and Verdugo are a couple other names mentioned here.



Follow Kiley McDaniel on Twitter for more baseball news on the draft, the minor leagues, the big leagues and July 2nd.

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